The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 1, 2022
LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
It feels like we can’t go a week without some crazy cheating scandal popping up. First, there were the professional fishermen who put lead weights and raw fish fillets into the fish they caught to literally tip the scales in their favor. Then there was the bizarre chess cheating affair where one of the top players in the world was accused of using a vibrating device placed in his rear end.
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Mish Talk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 2, 2022
It is amazing to think about how Toyota blew its enormous lead in Hybrid tech, failing to launch any substantial push into EVs. The chart below shows exactly how much sales have fallen for the first hybrid EV America has fallen into — and then out of love with. The Prius today badly lags the RAV4, its sister crossover, in Toyota hybrid sales. But the latest design is a handsome reboot, and should help sales pick up.
Investment Writing
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Can you spot what’s wrong in the image below? Please post your answer as a comment. I wince every time I hear someone use this expression. I post these challenges to raise awareness of the importance of proofreading. The post MISTAKE MONDAY for November 28: Can YOU spot what’s wrong? appeared first on Susan Weiner Investment Writing.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
When Russia invaded Ukraine in late-February, the price of oil was a little more than $90 a barrel. It basically went straight up from there to well over $120 a barrel in about a week and a half. Gas prices quickly moved up as well, getting as high as more than $5 a gallon by early summertime. The energy picture felt bleak at the time and it seemed like it was only a matter of time until we broke through all-time highs in.
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The Big Picture
DECEMBER 2, 2022
This was a fun conversation with my buddy Pete about all the media madness these days — it was as I was recovering from C19, and while I felt fine, my voice sounds pretty gravelly. If you find that kind of thing tolerable, people seemed to really like this discussion. Lots more details here. Enjoy! The post November 2022: Stand Up with Pete appeared first on The Big Picture.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Image courtesy of StockCharts.Com. The Federal Reserve posts a Transcript of Powell's Speech on Inflation and the Labor Market. Powell put a spotlight on core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, noting that it is stubbornly high despite the Fed's rate hikes. Key Powell Comments (Emphasis Mine) Twelve-month core PCE inflation stands at 5.0 percent in our October estimate, approximately where it stood last December when policy tightening was in its early stages.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 1, 2022
A reader asks: We own a cash-flowing rental property with a sub-3% mortgage with 28 years remaining. On the Aug 18th episode of Portfolio Rescue, Barry said “Real estate more or less returns zero net of inflation.” However, does this statement take into account the leverage provided by a mortgage? Return comparisons between stocks and real estate seem to favor stocks, but it’s not clear whether these com.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Hey guys, hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. Five day weekends are rare, hope yours was relaxing and fun. I’ll be in Houston for three days next week – my first time ever in that city! We’re taping a live version of The Compound and Friends podcast at the Dynasty Investors Forum. I will also be interviewing my friend Patrick O’Shaughnessy on stage about the custom and direct indexing revolution.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Last day of the 11th month! Enjoy the end of November with our mid-week morning train reads: • How Much Growth Can You Expect? Imagine I present to you a magical box that can turn your money into more money. The only problem is that you don’t know exactly how much more money you’ll get from this box. You could put $100 into the box and get back $200, $400, or maybe only $150 when all is said and done.
Covisum
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Lately, there have been a lot of conversations surrounding the current market state, and many retirees are worried about their investments. One of the most challenging aspects of financial planning is setting reasonable performance expectations. Of course, no one can predict the future, but the right financial planning software can help you make wise investment decisions based on available factors.
A VC: Musings of a VC in NYC
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
When markets are in turmoil, like they have been for most of this year, I like to have a buy-and-hold mindset when it comes to making new investments. It is hard to know when you’ve reached the bottom and can start buying again, but if you think about a ten or twenty-year hold, then it becomes a bit easier. The Gotham Gal and I buy and build a fair bit of real estate on the side and we generally use a “cap rate” of between 5 and 10 when we acquire and develop real estate.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
Hope everyone’s had a happy Thanksgiving. The shot above is from our annual Turkey Bowl football match. I had one reception and spent most of the game on the line where I belong, counting mississippis and menacing their QB. We’ve been playing in this game with the neighborhood dads and kids since the boys were babies. My son and his friends are all teenagers now.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. You might have missed it during the holiday week, but it’s worth reviewing. The specifics are noteworthy: -Over the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, making a one-month diffusion index of -4.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 2, 2022
It’s no doubt that, when it comes to fashion, the 60s and 70s carried the most vibrant, electric trends. Your generation has made the largest footprint in the world of fashion, creating iconic and stylish clothing that, even today, still resurfaces and remains just as cool. You may have already noticed the unexpected return of bell bottoms and flowing attire through your kids or grandkids.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
Worst of Its Kind? Bloomberg writer Merryn Somerset Webb says FTX Crypto Bubble Really Is the Worst of Its Kind. Investment bubbles tend to leave behind something useful when they pop. Unfortunately, crypto looks like an outlier. Webb compares the crypto bubble to the bicycle bubble of 1896 that left us with better bicycles, automobiles that were initially so slow people mocked them with "get a horse", and the DotCom bust that left us with far better technology.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Some charts I came across this week along with some thoughts on each: The bear market is speeding up the move from active to passive: This trend has been in place for a while now but the bear market is accelerating things. It makes sense if you think about it in terms of a down year in the stock market where people with long-term gains are more willing to get out of a position to make a portfolio change.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Climate Change from A to Z : The stories we tell ourselves about the future. ( New Yorker ). • A comprehensive guide to how Elon Musk is changing Twitter : Mass layoffs, trolling, and check marks: How Elon Musk is running Twitter. ( Vox ) see also Twitter was special.
Integrity Financial Planning
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
These days, retirement planning will likely involve Individual Retirement Accounts in one way or another. Whether you’re looking to roll over a 401(k), optimize your withdrawal timing, or take advantage of catch-up contributions, your IRA strategy may be one of the main components of your income strategy. So, let’s talk about the Roth IRA and its unique value at the end of the calendar year.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 1, 2022
ISM chart and details below by permission of the Institute for Supply Management. Please consider the November 2022 Manufacturing ISM ® Report On Business ® “Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Panelists’ companies continue to judiciously manage hiring, other than October 2022, the month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since February 2012, when it registered 47 percent and material lead times declined approximately 9 percent from the
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
DECEMBER 1, 2022
By Tristan Karl Robert Hartey You spend years developing a relationship with a client, and eventually they are going to pass away. If you have made sure that you’ve involved the next generation, the money is likely going to go there, and therefore you can add real value because you’re going to be able to help with the transition of that, which makes fostering that relationship a bit quicker.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
5 years ago, a dear friend unexpectedly passed away. Once his crew recovered from our initial shock, we decided to establish the Richard Yamarone Memorial Scholarship in Economics at Brooklyn College.* The driving force behind the scholarship was TBP Invictus. Art Cashin shared a reminder today: “Many of us were deeply saddened (5 yearsa go today) to learn of the sudden passing of Rich Yamarone at age 55 of complications of a cardiac event.
XY Planning Network
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
7 MIN READ. We see many advisors with successful careers in financial planning and investment management influenced at some level by the ability to cross every “T” and dot every “I.” So it's very natural for them to feel a little anxious about whether or not every detail has been properly executed when making the leap to independence or even moving between firms.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Really Worried about IRA Eurointelligence writes Industry is Really Worried about IRA. Whether you talk to European industrialists in Brussels or German industrialists in Berlin, you get the same message these days. They are really worried about the US inflation reduction act. At the BDI conference in Berlin, it was the dominant subject. FAZ quotes the president of the German federation of industry as saying that more than a fifth of German medium-sized companies they had polled were considering
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Madison Investments: See here to learn more about investing in Madison Investments strategies and managed account solutions and here for disclosure information On today’s show, we are joined by Ray Di Bernardo, VP and Portfolio Manager of Madison Investments to discuss covered call strategies in today’s market On today’s show we discuss: What Madison Inv.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
This week, we speak with Boaz Weinstein, the chief investment officer of Saba Capital Management LP, which Weinstein founded in 2009 as a lift-out of Saba Principal Strategies. Prior to founding Saba, Boaz Weinstein was co-head of global credit trading at Deutsche Bank, where he oversaw approximately 650 professionals. We discuss why being long volatility in an era of Fed tightening is so challenging, and why so many funds that hedged have disappointed this year.
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
By Matt Pais, MDRT Content Specialist Some leaders think they should look forward and remain firm at all times, even in the wake of a mistake. J.P. Pawliw-Fry, M.D., the co-founder of the Institute for Health and Human Potential, said his work with the NBA champion Chicago Bulls reflected the importance of acknowledging errors and demonstrating accountability in professional relationships.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Crypto Firms in Bankruptcy Proceedings End of an Era The Balance Sheet Assets $256 million. Liabilities $1 to $10 billion. Fun Fact The SEC has a $30 million unsecured claim on BlockFi. Inverse Cramer Strategy Yet Again The Wall Street Journal reports BlockFi Files for Bankruptcy as Latest Crypto Casualty BlockFi, based in Jersey City, N.J., is only beginning to answer how its hundreds of thousands of customers will fare in an insolvency.
Steve Sanduski
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
How much money do you need? How much money do your clients need to retire? Can you ever have “enough” money? “Enough” is a fascinating word because its definition is unique to each of us, and it is a moving target. Once we reach what we thought would be “enough,” we often realize that 15% more would probably be better. It’s also hard to admit when we have enough because it leaves us with a nagging feeling that perhaps we’re quitters.
XY Planning Network
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
8.5 MIN READ. The XYPN movement is growing rapidly. Yet despite thousands of XYPN shirts floating around and hundreds of members representing all 50 states, it’s still an uphill battle to get the word out about what we do, who we help, and how it all works. XYPN members are fantastic when it comes to sharing the movement. For that, we adore them. If you’re one of our beloved members, you are already familiar with some common misconceptions about XY Planning Network, such as “ all members are 25
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
By Michael DePilla, MDRT in-language content strategist Success as a financial advisor is not accidental. There are deliberate steps taken to increase productivity and efficiency. Try these three ideas when working with clients to take you to the next level in your career. Better booking. I use an online booking tool called OnceHub. I can embed this into my website, and my marketing team can send the link out to our clients, so they can schedule to meet when it is most convenient for them.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 1, 2022
Real, inflation-adjusted inventory data from the BEA via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. The chart shows "real" inflation-adjusted inventories. The index year is 2012. In four of the last six recession, inventories continued to build well into recession. In the other two, inventories peaked just prior to or at the start of recession. Biggest Ramp in Wholesale Inventory History.
Financial Times: Moral Money
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
We need to invest in the tools that enable people to stay well in work and prevent our workers from reaching crisis point
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