A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 9, 2022
Nationwide price declines in the housing market are relatively rare. Since 1987, there have been just three times when the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has been in a state of drawdown: The first was in the early-1990s when housing prices fell a little more than 2% nationally. Then you have the housing crash at the end of the 2000s when prices fell nearly 27%.
A VC: Musings of a VC in NYC
DECEMBER 5, 2022
The advances in AI over the last year are mind-boggling. I attended a dinner this past week with USV portfolio founders and one who works in education told us that ChatGPT has effectively ended the essay as a way for teachers to assess student progress. It will be easier for a student to prompt ChatGPT to write the essay than to write it themselves.
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The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 6, 2022
Before becoming one of the most important movie studio executives of the 1970s, Robert Evans took a break from the glitz and glam of Hollywood to work for his brother’s apparel line, Evan-Picone. The company was so fashionable in the 1960s that every investment bank was pushing them to go public. Before going that route, Robert’s brother Charles put a call into Charlie Revson, the founder and owner of Revlon.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data. Year-Over-Year EU Inflation Soars in October EU inflation is getting out of hand. For example, yesterday I said inflation in France peaked at 6.08 percent and fell to 5.55 percent ion September.
Private Equity Central brings together the best content for private equity professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 7, 2022
There are periods of time when we all flip on the TV and watch live events unfold in real-time. National disasters, wars, crises, big entertainment and sporting events all tend toward communal viewing. In many ways, it is the last vestiges of the early days of television when there were only 3 networks and mornings in the office led to water cooler discussions of the big show broadcast last night. 1.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 8, 2022
A reader asks: People are saying that the bond market is screaming recession. Has the bond market ever been wrong? Any notable examples and why was it wrong? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong. The bond market certainly DID NOT see the pandemic-induced inflation coming.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 8, 2022
One of the reasons people in the investment community respect Howard Marks so much is he says what he believes and lets the chips fall where they may. His observations are always insightful, and over the years have becomeopular, but what really set him apart were his big contrarian observations, such as the Amazon dot Bomb in 1999. I did not get to his recent What Really Matters?
A VC: Musings of a VC in NYC
DECEMBER 9, 2022
I have written many times about the Hour Of Code here at AVC. It is the highlight of the annual Computer Science Education Week which is the first week of December, which is this week. Yesterday Marco Argenti, Goldman Sachs’ CIO, and I went with NYC Schools Chancellor David Banks to the Hospitality Management High School in the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood in Manhattan to do an Hour of Code with the students there.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 7, 2022
Thanks to president Biden, The Pentagon Marches Off to Climate War. A little-noticed rule-making proposed by the Department of Defense, NASA and the General Services Administration last month would require federal contractors to disclose and reduce their CO2 emissions as well as climate financial risks. The rule would cover 5,766 contractors that have received at least $7.5 million from the feds in the prior year.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 6, 2022
I’m in Texas this week speaking at the Dynasty Investing Forum and seeing clients. The below was one of my best posts of the year, in my own humble opinion I wrote it at pretty much the worst moment for stocks in 2022, during the peak of the September sell-off that drove the S&P 500 to its lowest low – down about 25% on the year. Since this post, JPMorgan shares are up 26%.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 9, 2022
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Tony Fadell Is Trying to Build the iPod of Crypto : The product guru made Ledger’s new hardware wallet—a tiny vault for digital cash—flashy and fun. Plus, with this gadget you’ll never get FTX’d. ( Wired ). • Bikeshare Roars Back From the Pandemic : The shared micromobility market has been resilient even as commuting patterns have shifted.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 5, 2022
On their surfaces, index funds and mutual funds may seem interchangeable. Both offer diversification of assets and are commonly invested in a basket of stocks that aim to meet a certain investment goal. However, there are many key distinctions that separate an index fund from a mutual fund – distinctions that may be crucial to your portfolio of retirement investments.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 9, 2022
Bond yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes and Synopsis On the horizontal axis, F stands for Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR). The 3 and 6 represent months. I extrapolated rates between years equally. A few days ago the 10-year and 30-year bonds inverted and remain inverted. The EFFR is 3.83 percent. It is inverted with every bond of 5-years duration and longer.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 5, 2022
Next Friday, December 16th, we will be doing a live taping of The Compound and Friends at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square for an intimate audience of fans and friends. And we’re bringing our pals from the On The Tape podcast along with us – that’s Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Danny Moses. My whole podcast crew will be there t00 – Michael Batnick, Duncan, Nicole and John.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Wall Street’s 2023 Outlook for Stocks : There’s hundreds of pages of research and analysis that come with these strategists’ forecast. The general themes: Most Wall Street firms expect the U.S. economy to go into recession some time in 2023. Many believe forecasts for 2023 earnings have more room to get cut, and some believe those downward revisions mean lots of volatility for stocks in the early part of 2023. ( TKer ). • Burden of proof is on the
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 9, 2022
Baby Boomers have certainly proved that retirement can be a time of not just rest and relaxation but of fun and adventure. As you enter this wonderful new phase of your life, there are famous bands and musicians from the 60s and 70s that are still on tour now, whose tunes and jams have uplifted your spirits and given you an outlet to express yourself.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 4, 2022
It’s been a tough year for investors. Here’s a list of just some of the things that have led to a challenging year in the markets: The highest inflation in four decades Double-digit losses in both stocks and bonds Federal Reserve officials publicly rooting for the stock market to fall Interest rates rising rapidly War in Ukraine Continued lockdowns in the world’s second-biggest economy Record high gas p.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 3, 2022
Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Credit for the chart idea itself goes to the St. Louis Fed. I downloaded the data and created my own charts to better hone in on the data. Year-Over-Year Inflation Seven Countries Detail. Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. The EU lags badly when it comes to reporting most data releases.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 8, 2022
My morning train WFH reads: • The Cult of the Retail Trader Has Fizzled : The GameStop and AMC manias are long gone, with individual investor returns falling 40% this year and digital currency prices tumbling. ( Businessweek ). • FTX’s Bahamas Headquarters Was the First Clue : Bankman-Fried is just the latest in a long string of notorious characters who moved their business to the island nation, from the pirate Blackbeard to organized crime figures and assorted “financial wizards.” ( Bloomberg )
FMG
DECEMBER 7, 2022
Financial advisors have many tools to assist them in marketing their businesses and reaching new potential clients. This includes blogs, websites, videos, and much more. But search results ranking is one of the most crucial elements of successfully marketing a firm. If you can rank high on the search results page you’re doing well. That’s where our friend SEO comes into play.
Financial Times M&A
DECEMBER 9, 2022
Vote in favour of offer by Canadian group’s shareholders will give it greater control of Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
DECEMBER 6, 2022
By Bryce Sanders Prospects never breeze into your office and say, “Where do I sign?” As a financial advisor or insurance agent, you must do the work and close the sale. Are you doing the right work, though? You have learned all about features and benefits during sales training at your firm. The prospect needs to know how the features of the product (the benefits) will make their life better.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Those regional differences from the ideal are eye-opening! Source: Nature. The post Healthy Eating appeared first on The Big Picture.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 5, 2022
Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by StepStone: See here to learn more about investing in StepStone Private Wealth strategies and here for disclosure information On today’s show, we are joined by Bob Long, CEO of StepStone Private Wealth to give us an update on all things Private markets. On today’s show we discuss: Private equity valuations Can you time private markets?
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 5, 2022
ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM. Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 percent. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 53.8 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the 56.2 percent reported in October.
Steve Sanduski
DECEMBER 9, 2022
In a Nutshell: By appreciating the connections between capital, communities, the environment, and equality a new generation of social justice investors and advisors want to broaden the definition of wealth. Instead of a traditional focus on ROI, these folks are aiming to improve what I call Return on Life — using money to enrich our whole lives, including the world around us.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 3, 2022
?. This week, we speak with Luis Berruga, the chief executive officer at Global X ETFs. Before joining Global X, which has $42 billion in assets under management, Berruga was an investment banker at Jefferies. We discuss some of his favorite themes and ETF tickers. Berruga explains how the firm’s deep research bench allows them to test new ideas and their investment strategies for investment performance, liquidity, and conviction.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 7, 2022
Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: Enter your information here to claim a FREE YCharts Professional account through December 16th, 2022 (first 100 submissions) On today’s show we discuss: Immaculate disinflation hopes dashed? Comments on the November employment report Were there really twice as many job openings as unemployed people?
Fortune Financial
DECEMBER 7, 2022
High energy prices around the world this past year have added impetus to the desired energy transition away from fossil fuels to electricity, and lithium, the critical element in power storage, is front and center. Demand for lithium, which is currently around 500,000 tons globally, is forecast to grow to 2-3 million tons annually over the next decade as demand for battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) is expected surge [graphic via Morningstar]: To help us understand better the lithium indu
Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)
DECEMBER 4, 2022
By Ariana Ubina “I know a lot of single mothers who feel people view them as a failure for putting careers and goals aside to take care of their children,” Luviminda Sacro , a two-year MDRT member from Iloilo City, Philippines, said, adding that COVID-19 has reduced incomes for single-parent families to half of what they usually were. Women worldwide are overrepresented in the sectors hardest hit by lockdowns — hospitality, retail and food service — and 54 million women globally lost their jobs
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