The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 1, 2022
LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 11, 2022
"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 9, 2022
Nationwide price declines in the housing market are relatively rare. Since 1987, there have been just three times when the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has been in a state of drawdown: The first was in the early-1990s when housing prices fell a little more than 2% nationally. Then you have the housing crash at the end of the 2000s when prices fell nearly 27%.
A VC: Musings of a VC in NYC
DECEMBER 5, 2022
The advances in AI over the last year are mind-boggling. I attended a dinner this past week with USV portfolio founders and one who works in education told us that ChatGPT has effectively ended the essay as a way for teachers to assess student progress. It will be easier for a student to prompt ChatGPT to write the essay than to write it themselves.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 30, 2022
Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.
Investment Writing
DECEMBER 19, 2022
Have you resolved to exercise more? With that in mind, I’ve updated this list of free and low-cost online exercise classes that I originally created during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. I am grateful to my writer friends who suggested these resources to me. My current exercise favorites. My go-to website for low-impact cardio exercise is Team Body Project.
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Mish Talk
DECEMBER 16, 2022
Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 13, 2022
Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.
Indigo Marketing Agency
DECEMBER 19, 2022
As a financial advisor, your job requires you to stay on top of leading industry information, the evolving ways to connect with clients, and new strategies for managing money. With so much going on, it can be challenging to keep track of everything. That’s why we’ve identified the top 41 financial influencers we believe will greatly impact the industry in 2023.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 16, 2022
There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .
Investment Writing
DECEMBER 18, 2022
If you’ve ever tried to proofread the gazillionth draft of an article, you know it’s painful to reread a familiar piece. Plus, you naturally fill in missing words and correct other mistakes in your mind, not on the page. The Speak feature in Microsoft Word is helping me overcome this challenge. (Note: I initially used—and blogged about using—Adobe Acrobat for this purpose.).
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 3, 2022
We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 20, 2022
Think back to 2010. After you got done signing up for some new app called Instagram and finished 17 shows and movies about vampires, maybe you finished reading The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy. Once all that pop culture consumption was done, you would have needed some non-fiction to keep up with the intellectual crowd so you moved on to The Big Short by Michael Lewis.
BlueMind
DECEMBER 21, 2022
Category: Productivity Tips. Financial advisors, like most people, like to make last-minute New Year’s resolution. That’s because the New Year is seen as a chance to start fresh with strategies that will spur growth in their practice. But New Year’s resolutions are often infamous for being broken. Before the end of the first quarter, many resolutions fizzle and are forgotten and life returns to what it was.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.
Walkner Condon Financial Advisors
DECEMBER 13, 2022
Going back to work after nearly 11 years was an exciting and daunting prospect. For me, it was also a career change. I was diving into a new job in a new industry armed with a freshly completed Master’s degree and an infectious enthusiasm for my newly chosen profession. My kids – ages 11, 8, and 8 (yes that’s right, twins) – went back to school this fall, and I went back to work. .
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 10, 2022
This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data. Year-Over-Year EU Inflation Soars in October EU inflation is getting out of hand. For example, yesterday I said inflation in France peaked at 6.08 percent and fell to 5.55 percent ion September.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 22, 2022
A reader asks: I know no one can predict the future…yada, yada, yada, but just between us – what’s going to happen with the stock market next year? I’m not sure I can handle another year like 2022. Life would be a lot easier if I knew the answer to this question. I guess the good news is there really isn’t much connective tissue from one year to the next in terms of one year’s price action impacting the next y.
Financial Symmetry
DECEMBER 11, 2022
Behavioral finance biases can make or break your journey to building wealth. The truth at the heart of behavioral finance is the fact that we are not rational decision-makers when it comes to our money. The following five psychological and … Continued. The post Types of Behavioral Finance and How to Overcome Them appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.
Covisum
DECEMBER 14, 2022
Between record-high inflation, recession fears, and the ongoing threat of Social Security benefit cuts, many Americans are worried about their nest eggs in the current economic environment.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 6, 2022
Before becoming one of the most important movie studio executives of the 1970s, Robert Evans took a break from the glitz and glam of Hollywood to work for his brother’s apparel line, Evan-Picone. The company was so fashionable in the 1960s that every investment bank was pushing them to go public. Before going that route, Robert’s brother Charles put a call into Charlie Revson, the founder and owner of Revlon.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 26, 2022
2022 was a reckoning for the crypto industry. Cryptocurrencies deemed stable collapsed while proof of overly risky, shady, and even fraudulent practices emerged among some of the most established crypto companies. Instead of getting into the weeds of what the technology of crypto is or the genesis behind its creation, it’s more important to understand what is happening in the industry as it relates to your retirement and investment opportunities.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 10, 2022
This week, we speak with Kathleen McCarthy , the global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. The largest owner of commercial real estate globally, Blackstone Real Estate has a $565 billion portfolio and $319 billion in investor capital under management. McCarthy previously served as Blackstone’s global chief operating officer; before joining Blackstone in 2010, she worked at Goldman Sachs.
A VC: Musings of a VC in NYC
DECEMBER 9, 2022
I have written many times about the Hour Of Code here at AVC. It is the highlight of the annual Computer Science Education Week which is the first week of December, which is this week. Yesterday Marco Argenti, Goldman Sachs’ CIO, and I went with NYC Schools Chancellor David Banks to the Hospitality Management High School in the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood in Manhattan to do an Hour of Code with the students there.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 6, 2022
I’m in Texas this week speaking at the Dynasty Investing Forum and seeing clients. The below was one of my best posts of the year, in my own humble opinion I wrote it at pretty much the worst moment for stocks in 2022, during the peak of the September sell-off that drove the S&P 500 to its lowest low – down about 25% on the year. Since this post, JPMorgan shares are up 26%.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 7, 2022
Thanks to president Biden, The Pentagon Marches Off to Climate War. A little-noticed rule-making proposed by the Department of Defense, NASA and the General Services Administration last month would require federal contractors to disclose and reduce their CO2 emissions as well as climate financial risks. The rule would cover 5,766 contractors that have received at least $7.5 million from the feds in the prior year.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 30, 2022
I’ve been getting a lot of pundit outlook pieces for 2023 in my inbox these past few weeks. The onset of a new year is a time for making lists of predictions, surprises and black swan possibilities. There are few sure things when it comes to the markets so I don’t put a lot of stock into predictions. You could say the stock market will open at 9:30 am est and close at 4 pm est during regular market hours but t.
Integrity Financial Planning
DECEMBER 29, 2022
Holiday shopping can be stressful, and unless you took advantage of Black Friday or Cyber Monday, you might find it tough to find the deals you need to keep your gifts within your budget. Well, post-holiday shopping may be the perfect opportunity to take advantage of clearance sales on your favorite products and gifts. Use Your Credit Cards Wisely. Credit cards come with many perks as well as a variety of interest rates.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.
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